Предприятие строительной отрасли - сложная production and economic system, characterized by a set of properties, inextricably linked with its internal features. These include: reliability, elasticity, mobility, adaptability, sustainability, competitiveness, innovative susceptibility, investment activity, which reflects in dynamics the intensity of investment activity, scale, focus and efficiency of its investment investments, the investment attractiveness of the enterprise as a whole.
In modern conditions, determined by highcompetition in the industry and the saturation of the traditional market with products (services), the advantage is given to construction companies with a fairly high market value, the growth of which can not be achieved without attracting additional investment resources to replenish fixed and working capital, to implement measures to improve the competitiveness of products, development enterprises and increasing investment attractiveness.
Increasing the investment attractiveness of the enterprise involves the management of investment activity, which is obviously the most important parameter for the development of a construction enterprise.
In the system of investment management functionsactivity emphasizes planning, which allows, on the basis of forecast data, to determine the strategic goals of the investment activity of a business entity, ways and means of achieving them. The investment attractiveness of the enterprise in the strategic plan aims to increase investment activity and maintain its optimal level.
Limits of investment activity planningestablished in the process of its forecasting, the result of which are quantitative forecast values of the index of investment activity (structural indicators) for the future, a critical level of investment activity of a construction enterprise, the achievement of which leads to qualitative changes in its market value. Considering that the investment attractiveness of an enterprise requires a weighted forecast, the complexity of the forecasting process and the requirements for the quality of results, it seems possible to estimate the forecast values of investment activity indicators using several methods.
Taking into account a number of factors:the specifics of the object of forecasting (the investment attractiveness of the enterprise, its activity and its structural indicators), the availability of statistical information about the object under study, the medium term of the lead-over period, it is advisable to use extrapolation methods in the process of forecasting the investment activity of a construction company. A reasonable prerequisite for the application of these methods is a certain degree of inertia in the dynamics of investment activities of construction enterprises in the short and medium term.
Extrapolation methods are based onretrospection, during which a model of the dynamics of the object of forecasting is formed: the index of investment activity of the construction company, its structural indicators and the spread of trends in indicators in the retrospective period for the future.
Studies have shown that to determine the predicted values of activity indicators of the enterprise of the construction industry, the following methods are promising:
• analytical alignment;
• simple exponential smoothing;
• Holt-Winters exponential smoothing;
• Brown's exponential smoothing.
All these methods are based on the idea thatSuch an investment attractiveness of the enterprise and the dependence of the levels of the dynamic range of indicators of its investment activity on the time factors.
