Scientists studying social andeconomic development of the states, agreed that it is wavy (according to Kondratieff's theory of long waves), the level of growth is determined by the influence of many factors (cultural, political, social and others), and the driving force of development is the degree of information and technological progress. According to a number of sources, the scientific and technological revolution (scientific and technological revolution) occurs cyclically, while the cycles last for about fifty years.
Theory of technological structures
There are five cycles.In the first wave (from 1785 to 1835) a technological structure was formed, which was based on new achievements of the textile industry, the use of water energy. The second cycle (from 1830 to 1890) is associated with the development of the railway industry and transport, mechanical production using steam engines. In the third wave, a technological pattern was formed based on the use of electricity. During this period (from 1880 to 1940) the development of the electrotechnical industry and heavy mechanical engineering was noted. Plastics, non-ferrous metals, airplanes, telegraph, radio communications and other achievements were introduced into the third wave. In addition, in this period of time began to appear trusts, cartels, large firms. At the same time, the dominance of monopolies and oligopolies was noted on the market, and the accumulation of financial and banking capital began.
Fourth cycle
В 4-й волне был сформирован технологический way of life, which was based on the subsequent development of energy with the use of petroleum products, oil, communications, gas, weapons, aircraft, tractors and others. During this period from 1930 to 1990, there was a widespread distribution of computers and software, radar. They began to use the atom - in the military, and then for peaceful purposes. Transnational and transnational companies began to appear, making direct investments in markets in different countries. The fifth wave is characterized by emphasis on advances in computer science, microelectronics, genetic engineering, biotechnology, satellite communications, and various types of energy. From fragmentation firms move to the formation of a single network of large and small companies, the interaction between which is established using the Internet. This period (from 1985 to 2035) is characterized by planning, ensuring quality control, and organizing supplies in accordance with the on-time principle. It should be noted that the duration of individual waves is slightly more than fifty years. This is due to the coincidence of the time of decline of the outgoing structure with the period of progression of the new. Acceleration of the NTP will help in the future shorten the duration of the waves.
The fifth wave. Elements and benefits
The concept of the technological structure of the presentThe time includes several components. The main elements are the core, a key factor. The core is the electronics industry, software, computing, telecommunications and other achievements of modern science. The key factor is microelectronic components. Compared with the previous (fourth) fifth technological structure, it is based on the individualization of consumption and production, the expansion of product diversity, the overcoming of environmental constraints through the automation of production and so on.