The modern concept of the demographic transitionexplains the process of changing types of reproduction. In addition, it allows us to identify the patterns of this process. The greatest, in the opinion of the researchers, is the theory of the demographic transition from the traditional to the modern type.
In the whole process, as a result of which the population stabilizes, four phases are determined.
The first phase in the middle of the 20th century passedstate with developed industry. This period was different in that the increase in the overall mortality rate (ACS) was higher than the decrease in the total fertility rate (OCD). In a number of countries, fertility remains at the same level, and in some cases even increases.
The second phase is characterized by a continuationlowering the death rate. At the end of the period ACS reaches a minimum. Together with this, the fertility rate is also decreasing, at a more rapid rate. As a result, there is a slowdown in natural growth.
The third phase shows an increase in the coefficientmortality. This is due to the active aging of the population. Together with this, the birth rate also decreases. Thus, by the end of the phase, OCD reaches the level of ordinary reproduction.
At the fourth stage there is an increase in ACS, approaching or exceeding the OCD in some cases. At this phase, demographic stabilization is coming to an end.
A sharp acceleration in the growth of the number began with1950s. The onset of acceleration is mainly due to the establishment of an intermediate type of reproduction. Typically, this period is characterized by the fact that a decrease in mortality is ahead of the decrease in the birth rate. As a result, the number increase is accelerating. This process may not meet the objective requirements of socio-economic development.
At the end of the 18th century, some Western EuropeanThe demographic transition began in the capitalist countries. Subsequently, it spread to other states, and by the middle of the 20th century embraced the entire planet.
The demographic transition has its ownFeatures that are determined in accordance with the course of history. Of no small importance in the process of changing types of reproduction is the cultural, social, political, economic restructuring of society in the process of its industrial development. The demographic transition is influenced by the form of the socio-economic system under which it occurs in one or another state. According to the researchers, in connection with these factors, the capacity and duration of population growth are also established.
Demographic transition can be carried out according to one of three typical schemes.
The first was characteristic of the Frenchstate. In France, the process of changing types (and regimes, respectively) of mortality and fertility was parallel. In this connection, the state practically did not experience a demographic explosion. However, this scheme is an exception to the rules.
In most European countries, which began in 19century transition took a different course. According to the scheme, the beginning of birth rate lagged behind the onset of mortality by fifty-one hundred years. As a result, in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a demographic explosion occurred in this region.
The third scheme is typical for LatinAmerica, as well as Asia and Africa. In these states, there is a fairly rapid drop in mortality, and in some of them, rates are much lower than in fairly developed countries. In these regions, the demographic explosion was quite powerful. In these territories, the natural increase is about 20-35%. At the same time, a massive decrease in the birth rate occurs with a significant delay.
