People who are far from economics, financialrelations and the banking sector are not even aware that from February 1, 2005, the Central Bank of Russia uses the value of the currency basket to regulate the ruble exchange rate. Why use such a method, what is it good for, and what are its negative sides, let's look at this article.
Formula calculation
Currency basket in simple words - this is the courserubles to the dollar and the euro. More preference is given to the dollar, and in BC its share is 55%, and the euro, respectively, is 45%. That is, in order to calculate the value of the currency basket, you must use the following formula:
0.55 * current US dollar exchange rate according to the Central Bank data + 0.45 * current euro rate, according to the Central Bank data.
According to this formula, the course is calculated from 2007.
That is, the dual-currency basket in simple words is a way to find out the demand for the Russian ruble in relation to a certain proportion of the dollar and the euro.
Dual currency basket corridor
There is such a thing as a floating currencycorridor. The central bank establishes the permissible boundary values for the rate in which it can fluctuate in the direction of decreasing or increasing. When values exceed the limits of the dual-currency basket, the Central Bank regulates measures to stabilize the exchange rate. This practice helps to keep the value of the Russian ruble at the necessary level in order to support producers-exporters to foreign countries.
We can say that the currency basket is simplein words it is a way to stabilize the Russian ruble, which the Central Bank uses. This method determines the real exchange rate of the ruble against the two most common currencies, which makes it possible to understand the value of the domestic currency in the international market.
History of appearance
The idea of introducing an effective Russian courseruble emerged in 2003. The nominal rate needed to be adjusted according to inflation indicators, both internal and external, and also compared with the shares of various foreign currencies that participate in trade operations of the Russian Federation.
At first, the Central Bank focused only on US dollars.when pursuing its policy, but over time this approach has lost its relevance and there is a need to compare the ruble with another stable currency - the euro. This happened against the background of the weakening of the dollar and the strengthening of the positions of the European common currency when making international payments.
Due to the fact that mainly US dollars and euros were used in trade, the calculation of this indicator was reduced to a comparison of the ruble with these two currencies.
Get away from the dollar exchange rate
Central Bank wanted to reduce the impact of the US dollar on the courseruble, so that it is less dependent on the fluctuations of this foreign currency. For this purpose, a dual-currency basket was created, which became a guideline for the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
When the dual currency basket has just appeared, 90%was given to dollars, and 10% - the euro. And gradually, the share of influence on the dollar rate was declining, while the euro was increasing and by February 8, 2007, it stopped at a rate that is still valid today.
They wanted to increase volatility
The increase in the share of the euro in the calculation of the currency basketwas implemented in order to reduce the volatility of the ruble exchange rate, that is, to make the Russian currency unit easily convertible. Dual currency basket in simple words - this is the so-called landmark, according to which the Central Bank builds its monetary policy.
In fact, two dual currencies are calculated.baskets. The first is the one mentioned above, the calculation of which is to find out the value of the ruble in relation to the US dollar and the euro. The second dual currency basket of the Russian Federation is used to calculate the real exchange rate of the ruble on the basis of the exchange rates of those countries with which Russia has any trade relations.
The increase in the share of the euro did not reduce volatility
Time shows that the decline in the share of the dollar inthe benefit of the European currency helped to reduce volatility in the short term. Against the background of the fact that the Central Bank is trying to fill reserves with all possible means, in June 2015 the Russian ruble was recognized as the most volatile currency.
It is necessary to understand that the more Central Bankhe buys foreign currency, the more he puts rubles on the market, which contributes to an increase in supply while maintaining demand at the same level. They say that revising the policy of the Central Bank can force a sharp drop in the ruble, that is, a significant excess of the upper limit of the bi-currency basket corridor.
Central Bank must constantly monitor changesvalue of the US currency and the Eurozone. Experts say that the share of influence of foreign currencies should be dynamic and change depending on changes in the volume of trade operations that are conducted with these countries.
The cost of oil hit the ruble
The sharp decline in the cost of oil caused a significanta blow to the ruble against other currencies. But the policy of a flexible two-currency corridor allows settling the situation without serious losses. This means that when necessary, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation simply lowers the lower threshold or increases the upper threshold. Painlessly conduct such operations allows a large gold and foreign exchange reserves, which is used in the most critical moments.
Dual currency basket value is not somethingmore than a simple landmark. Real exchange rates are determined by trading on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. The course today is determined by the results of trading yesterday. Compared to other bidders, the Central Bank is the undoubted leader, and it is on its actions that the fluctuation of currencies depends.
Trading Exchange sets the course
It would seem that the course is set as a resulttrades, that is, by market methods, but because of the large-scale amount of resources of a participant like the Central Bank, he himself sets an acceptable rate for him. Due to the fact that the Russian Federation occupies the third place in terms of gold and foreign exchange reserves in the world, the Central Bank is able to protect the ruble from virtually any speculation.
This is not an absolutely negative factor.situation when the currency basket rate decreases. Any economist understands that the more expensive a ruble becomes, the more expensive Russian goods will be abroad, and, as a result, sellers will face more and more competition. Therefore, sometimes it is beneficial to slightly weaken the currency in order to more successfully sell goods abroad.
And, it would seem, the opposite is true for the population:more profitable when the ruble is strong, that is, the purchasing power increases, but in any case, if the industry loses its markets abroad, it will lead to a reduction in production, jobs, unemployment and other unpleasant consequences. And this is an undesirable result of the policy of the Central Bank, so the government will always avoid such consequences.
At the same time, the state will always tryto find a compromise between exporters and ordinary people who want to buy something abroad. And in this, the Central Bank will always help the currency basket, with which you can always see the real price of the national currency.
