Курс доллара США по отношению к рублю в последние the years are very unstable: after the crisis of 2008–2009 US currency has fallen significantly. In 2013 and the beginning of 2014 - increased again. Market experts believe that a whole complex of factors, both economic and political, influences the situation, as well as the answer to the question of whether the dollar will fall.
Oil price
According to one view, the dollar to ruble rate2014 will vary greatly. A sharp rise in US currency may be accompanied by a smooth recovery of the position of the Russian banknote. The ruble, as experts note, largely depends on oil prices. The higher it is, the weaker the dollar will be. If the price of oil falls, then the Russian government, in order to compensate for the drawdown in the budget, devalues the ruble in order to gain more from the export of “black gold”.
However, positive macroeconomicstatistics coming from the United States, as well as the gradual withdrawal of the EU from a long recession, suggest that the cost of oil will remain at a fairly high level (about $ 100 per barrel). The ruble, thereby, is supported by the stability of Western economies. In 2014, if oil prices sharply set a course for a decline, the Russian currency will then become cheaper relative to the US. If, on the contrary, it only remains to wait for the dollar to fall.
The ruble is not weak
There is a point of view that the Russian ruble, in general,not a weak currency at all. According to the calculations of supporters of this thesis, the national banknote of our country in real terms has strengthened over the past 10 years by 60%. If, for example, citizens all these years kept their savings in rubles, then they definitely won. At the same time, such a strengthening of the Russian currency, as economists believe, will sooner or later be won back by the market. Despite large volumes of fuel exports, the inflow of clean money (in the form of salaries, transfers) to the country is low. The Russian economy, thus, may experience problems from this, and the ruble, as a result, will return the “debt” of the past years to the dollar.
But still "wooden"
Some experts believe that the ruble is the currency inagainst which it is difficult to have confidence: how the dollar behaves, whether the Russian banknote falls or rises - it is problematic to predict. Suffice it to recall the 90s, when the ruble could at the most inopportune moment turn into a worthless "paper". Too many factors traditionally affect the rate of the Russian currency: this is the price of oil, the policy of the Central Bank in relation to the banking system, the behavior of private KBs themselves.
Forecasts for the year 2014 do not exclude that the rubledevalued - largely because Russia joined the WTO, as a result of which the share of imports can grow, and production inside the country can decline. There are figures: by the end of 2013, the euro reached 45 rubles, although in 2012 this figure was considered impossible. Therefore, we can not exclude an increase in the rate of up to 50 units of the Russian currency for a single European. In turn, in the US economy in recent years there are signs of stabilization, and experts are more optimistic about the dollar.
It makes no sense to speculate
Despite the fact that market experts keeppessimism about the ruble, no one advises to invest in the US currency as a kind of savings. There is a version that the population is artificially frightened by the custom articles of economists, as well as by heating various rumors and gossip with the sole purpose of provoking the citizens of Russia of buying as much of the American currency as possible. The real "owners" of banknotes are not speculators, but central banks. They decide when the dollar falls, and when it grows.
There is an interesting point of view:if Russians can somehow influence our Central Bank, which is still working, rather, respecting the interests of the oligarchs, and not the people, then the “buck” can fall in price to 30 rubles by the end of 2014. Also, some experts emphasize that even if there is a sharp deterioration in the economic situation, there is a Reserve Fund at the state’s disposal, where about 5 trillion rubles are “stocked up”. That is enough to cover a very large budget deficit.
Optimistic look
According to a number of experts, during currencythe trades of the last months were observed when the Central Bank of Russia did not conduct any currency interventions at all. The course of the national banknote, thus, fell into the so-called "neutral corridor" when the Central Bank does not matter: the dollar will rise or fall. The cost of the “dual currency basket” at this moment did not exceed the value of 41 rubles that is critically important for the Central Bank. There are fundamental and speculative factors of the future behavior of the Russian currency in relation to the dollar and the euro.
Касательно первых – происходит значительный рост balance of foreign trade of Russia. This is largely due to the improved financial situation of the Eurozone countries, which are the main economic partners of our country. The ECB predicts that the region's GDP may grow by 1.1% by the end of 2014. As a result, there may be an increase in demand for fuel resources from Russia, as well as an increase in their prices. In addition, the weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, which occurred in 2014, in fact, improved the trade balance of our country due to the active import substitution. So it's not a fact that the Russian business is sitting and waiting for the dollar to fall.
Numbers from the state
Минэкономразвития России прогнозирует, что рубль (in real effective terms) in 2014 will weaken by 7.4% (while some time ago the calculation was to reduce prices by 1.5%). This figure was announced at the highest ministerial level. In 2015, the Russian currency will be able, as the Ministry of Economic Development believes, to strengthen by 0.2%, in 2016 - by 1.1%, and a little more in 2017 - by 0.1%. The ruble to the dollar in 2014, according to the agency, in average annual expression will be 36.3 units (compared to 33.9 in the previous calculation). In 2015, one “buck” is expected to cost 38.8 Russian banknotes, in 2016, almost the same - 38.7, in 2017, too, without any significant changes - 38.5.
The Ministry of Economic Development also believes thatthe average annual price of a barrel of Urals oil will increase to $ 104, and in 2015-2016 will drop to 100 units of American currency. In 2017, “black gold”, according to forecasts of the ministry, will fall in price to 98 dollars per barrel. The state is probably not wondering when the dollar will fall in value.
Figures from analysts
According to current investment bank forecastsUBS, the Russian economy in 2014 will grow by only 1.5% (while in previous calculations figure was 2.5%), in 2015 - by 2% (2.8% was expected before). As a result of the reassessment of the financial situation in our country, analysts of this credit institution expect that the “two-currency” basket mentioned above will cost 44.2 rubles by the end of 2014 (before this, the indicator was 40.7 units of the Russian currency).
Regarding the mutual position of the dollar and the euro,By the end of 2014, UBS analysts expect that 1 unit of US currency will cost 1.25 European banknotes. This is roughly in line with forecasts for the ruble (37.6 per dollar by December 2014). In 2015, the euro in relation to the “bucks”, believe in UBS, will fall in price to the level of 1.20. Bank analysts expect that the Russian Central Bank will not interfere in currency trading, but do not exclude that the Central Bank’s monetary policy will become tougher. But in their forecasts there is almost no place for theses on the development of the economy of our country when the dollar rate falls.
Ukrainian factor
Russian experts do not disregardthe situation in Ukraine and the behavior of the dollar relative to the national currency of the neighboring country - hryvnia. The International Monetary Fund sees as reasonable a course in the form of 10.5-11 units of this banknote to a “bucks”. There is a pessimistic scenario in which the dollar can rise in price to 12-13 hryvnia. Among the reasons are the increase in gas prices for Ukraine, the deterioration of the trade partnership with Russia, which could trigger a deficit in the country's balance of payments and lead to a devaluation of the hryvnia. What is important is the policy factor of the IMF itself.
If the fund gives Ukraine a loan, then the nationalThe currency of the country against the dollar may strengthen. The tranche from the IMF can become a positive signal for investors from abroad and entrepreneurs. One of the other positive indicators is the attitude of the leaders of Russia and the United States to help resolve the situation in the country through diplomatic channels. But a political game is too complicated a process for sure to know whether the dollar will fall in Ukraine.
Cautious predictions
Experts point out that understand how will leadthe dollar itself, based on the “tomorrow rate,” is easy — due to the fact that the Central Bank of Russia publishes the exchange rate of the current day as the official exchange rate for tomorrow. It is much more difficult to make long-term forecasts and it is impossible to say for sure when the dollar or the euro will fall. The exchange rate of the American currency in relation to the Russian is very much dependent on two groups of factors. First, it is as such the strength of the ruble. It depends on the situation inside the Russian economy and political processes. Secondly, the dollar exchange rate to other world currencies (first of all, euro), which is not easy to predict. Therefore, analysts do not advise market players to trust too much long-term predictions about the behavior of the American banknote.
